What does Iran want from Erbil?

Tanya kurdi

2022-08-07

By Tania Kurdi

Iran feels the change in the political scene for the future of Iraq, and is concerned about the new developments in Mosul and Kirkuk, and that the Sunnis, like the al-Halbousi and Khamis al-Khanjar fronts, who are close to Turkey, are preparing to strengthen the Turkish political position in Mosul. It is also concerned about opening a new front between the Sunnis and the KDP, which has spread to the Shiites, who have a tentative agreement with al-Sadr.

It is feared that there will be a large movement of Turkey in Syria to Idlib on the M4 highway, which, if Turkey succeeds in this movement on the M4 highway, will affect Mosul, because the M4 highway reaches the Rabia border. It is also concerned that there is direct Turkish air traffic on International Route 47, which covers the Sinjar region.

 

It is feared that there will be Turkish air movements in the force of Line 36 in Makhmour and Kirkuk, although Turkey has an influence on the Sunnis in terms of the political structure, but Turkey has an understanding with Al-Sadr and the Sunnis within the framework of Britain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

 

For Iran, the consequences of the war in Ukraine are economic, and Iran's main goal is not to replace its economic movements in Iraq, Syria and the Kurdistan Region with Turkish economic movements.

 

If the first intention of Iran is to hand over the Kurdistan Region issue to Baghdad through the Federal Supreme Court, then the second intention is to prevent Turkey from accessing the natural gas of the Kurdistan Region. However, oil and gas itself has an international dimension and Turkey will not hesitate to sign contracts with the Kurdistan Region for oil and natural gas.

 

Now there is a new situation for the Kurdistan Region: Is the economic equation with Turkey to be completed while Iran creates military harassment, or is the balance with Iran maintained and Iranian interests preserved.

 

The Kurdistan Region has two road maps

Firstly, it will be the responsibility of the next Iraqi prime minister to reach an agreement on oil and gas. Erbil and Baghdad should reach an appropriate solution to the oil and gas issue without implementing the decision of the Federal Supreme Court, in which case the Kurdistan Region will not have any problems with oil and gas legally.

 

Or secondly, Baghdad will file a complaint against the Kurdistan Region in the courts, and then the resolution of this issue for the Kurdistan Region will fall to the lobby that it has in the oil.

 

In both cases, Baghdad knows that the Kurdistan Region will not deliver the oil, so the best solution is to return to the previous agreement in the form of estimating oil revenues and excluding from the Iraqi federal budget share, which is expected to be done.

 

What does Iran want from Erbil?

First, Iran's economic interest in Iraq and Syria is that the Kurdistan region not be on a front that conflicts with Iran's economic interests in the region.

Second, Iran considers Erbil as part of its security stability in the region. And it wants Erbil to appear neutral in the interference of Turkish interests and the road map drawn up by the United States, Britain and France in the region.

 

Third, Iran wants Erbil to become a strategic partner in the region, not a hub that would jeopardize Iran's interests in the region.

The future of relations between Erbil and Tehran

 

First, Erbil's weapon for Iran is diplomacy. Erbil will not sever diplomatic relations with Iran. It is clear that Iran is a state and the Kurdistan region is a region within the framework of a federal Iraq.

 

Second, Erbil has economic interests with Iran and maintains a kind of economic balance. This is the right thing for both Iran and Erbil.

 

Third, the military issue in the Kurdistan Region does not fall within the framework of opposition to Iran. But these missile attacks on Erbil are an important opportunity for Erbil to have its own defense system through the Patriots, and the United States has given the green light for Erbil to have Patriots under the Iraqi federal government's license.

 

Fourth, Erbil considers the Turkish oil and gas route as its oxygen, so it will develop economic relations with Turkey.

 

 

Fifth, Erbil wants to create a protection line around its interests through the UN Security Council, with the support of Baghdad, so that foreign hands do not become a reason to prevent the internal issues of the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad. Erbil and Baghdad are on the same line of interest in this regard, and these missiles may be a new beginning of understanding between Erbil and Baghdad to approach each other.

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